What looked to be a MOVER…
Turned out only to be a tree SHAKER!
I knew a fall was brewing, but to be honest I thought it would have more legs.
Now that it has stalled (and held) I now believe one final thrust to the upside to test previous highs will take place – within 2 weeks.
I have place two High No Touch trades on the Dow, just as it fell early this week and one last Friday.
I got in at levels above 10800 here is a quick example below.
The only reason I did not put 25k on this trade, is because BOM temporarily placed a 5k limit on payout.
At such a pivotal point in market conditions, as the Indices turned I was set to make over 15k at least. I had to settle for 10 times less instead
Makes me wonder…
I placed this trade on Thursday 14th Jan, for 11 days.
The fall had been brewing for weeks, but I never second guessed when it would occur.
As soon as I saw the Dow freefall a particular amount down past its 20-day (green) MA line, I pounced and for the minimum timeframe too, as I knew the market could always force a slight reaction rally.
The reaction rally has been minimal; however at one point in Monday’s session the Dow was up over 90 points, it ended up closing lower by 2.
This tells me it does not have the legs for the whip higher just yet, but its persistence in holding onto 10200 does indicate it may have found support just as it did on the 12th Nov 09
From there, we saw a 200+point rally that eventually helped the Dow to trade above the 20-day Ma line for the rest of the year and half of January 2010.
One major difference this time, is that if is manages a 200+point rally, it will more than likely still be capped under the 50-day (blue) and 20-day Ma lines.
I will be placing High No Touches ABOVE 10500-10600 as soon as I see a rally of 100-200 points in the next 7-10days.
Even if I see nothing happen, I will be happy hat it has burned its legs so it will not be rallying soon, so again, high no touch.
Onto Cable…
I am not going to say too much about this chart, it is quire simple.
I am looking at the 1.627 (up) and 1.61 (down) for my action zones.
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1 Personal training spot left for 2010.
Email: fixedoddstrader@aol.com if you want it now!
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My 1.627 level is where the blue 50-day Ma line is at.
Right now, the £/$ is trading at 1.623, if it can build beyond the 1.627 zone, I will be placing a low no touch temporarily below the black 200-day and green 20-day Ma lines.
I mean temporarily as it will be 2 days max.
Now, on the downside, I have picked 1.61 for a personal reason, it is a round number ,and one I believe the market will REALLY sell-off if indeed it is broken.
The 1.61 level is the roundest figure that is JUST below where this market rallied hard up through the 200-day Ma black line through the 8-11th Jan2010.
It is also JUST below where the market sunk to on the 22nd, then rallied to 1.625 by Monday this week.
There seems to be solid support just ABOVE this level (1.612), so I know that if this 1.61 level is clearly broken on the down then a High No Touch is in.
I will probably play that for longer, say 3-4 days. And for a 25-30% return.
I have got BOM to raise the max payout limit to 10k now. So I will more than likely place 7.5k to win 10k back within 3-4 days.
Just a quick note;
People think that I would either win 2.5k or lose 7.5k. This is not true, not like horses, the 7.5k stake will fluctuate in accordance to the movements of cable throughout the trade duration.
If the stake dipped below 5k I would probably sell. My limit for a loss is 2.5k and my profit is 2.5k.
Its evens on paper, HOWEVER, if I see the market aggressively sell off BELOW the 1.61 level, that is just the same as me witnessing a trainer injecting his horse with the most powerful steroid on the planet!
I make sure I have the edge. Back to trading Thursday…
Matt $haw
www.fixedoddssuccess.com
P.S. 1 Personal training spot left for 2010.
Email: fixedoddstrader@aol.com if you want it now!
P.P.S. Do you have 200k spare for a forex treat? It will return 10% per month compounding. Email no.2
